Kalshi Beating DraftKings Pricing on Some NFL Games, Says Bear Cave
Prediction markets giant Kalshi is making some progress in NFL pricing, which might be problematic for DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and other conventional sportsbook operators.
The editor and creator of The Bear Cave newsletter, Edwin Dorsey, reported on Tuesday that he paid $49.95 to purchase 115 "yes" contracts for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on "Monday Night Football" at a cost of 43 cents each, plus a 50-cent fee to Kalshi. On DraftKings, he also wagered $50 on Tampa Bay. Dorsey received $107 from DraftKings and $115 from Kalshi after the Bucs won. For every NFL game on Sunday, he also contrasted the prices on the two platforms.
"On Tuesday evening, The Bear Cave reviewed prices for all upcoming Sunday NFL games and found in many cases Kalshi offered better odds than DraftKings. For example, for the Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants, DraftKings will pay $157.50 for a $50 bet on the underdog Giants, while the Kalshi market offers $170, after fees, for the same bet,” observes The Bear Cave Editor.
A pricing comparison of DraftKings and Kalshi odds on Sunday’s Kansas City Chiefs/New York Giants game.
Dorsey does not own stocks listed in his newsletter, nor does he engage in short selling. Although there was no overt criticism of the sportsbook operator in the report comparing DraftKings and Kalshi, it did point out that DraftKings might be concerned about the derivatives exchange's entry into football parlays and player propositions since those are lucrative bets for gaming companies.
NFL Pricing Advancements by Kalshi
Dorsey stated that he conducted the DraftKings/Kalshi research based on the odds the former was providing in New York City in a brief email discussion with Casino.org. This is significant since New York has the biggest sports betting market in the United States.
“The Bear Cave expects Kalshi’s value proposition to improve over time because its transaction fees may come down as the platform matures and the platform is actively exploring sub-penny pricing, which will allow for even smaller bid-ask spreads,” said Dorsey in the report.
DraftKings' Hope Is Not Lost
Although there is indication that the first two weeks of the 2025 NFL season haven't been kind to sportsbook operators, DraftKings and others are still reliable, if not better, rivals to companies like Kalshi. Football is the biggest wagered sport in the United States.
According to Dorsey's study of 14 Sunday, September 21 NFL games, Kalshi has a price advantage in eight of those tilts, while DraftKings has an advantage in six. He also admitted that just $12K in trade volume was generated by a recent readymade NFL parlay created by Kalshi.
"The issue with parlays on prediction markets is that they require the counterparty to put up large amounts of capital for relatively small payouts,” he notes.
Kalshi has recently under criticism for charging fees to clients with lesser stakes while permitting "whales" and professional investors to trade on the platform for free. Additionally, there are rumors that the company's market-making division is trading against retail clients, which might make it more difficult for those market players to succeed.
